Ctrl+V of my MSN Space...

本来以为Morgan Stanley真就要变成made in China了，不过连续两天股票回转，也许MS要好好重新考虑自己的价值了。看看Lehman的Broker-Dealer业务卖给Barclay的价 格，John Mark肯定不希望自己以后为贱卖了MS毁到肠子发青。于是，MS变成CS（Citic Stanley / China Stanley）的可能性又小了一些。不过昨天看到报道就觉得不管是CIC还是Citic，买MS都不是很明智的决定，MofA在怎么说也是投行的League Table上有名字的，Citic恐怕只有香港运营的经验，CIC更是只有赔钱的经验， 这样去买人家，跟赌博没什么区别。CIC是有钱，但不是有钱X就大，对于CIC而言，花个好价钱买下MS也许可以为之前那50亿美元的投资平平仓，可是现 在只是持股10%尚有不占董事席位的借口，如果真的买下来势必要接手，CIC能管得好MS？估计楼继伟自己也不相信。不管怎样，现在谁也说不清MS会卖给 谁，就像一个星期前谁也说不清MS竟然有可能被卖掉，拭目以待下周的发展吧。

靠FED和全球央行的努力，跟前四天相比，周五市场看到的更多是希望，于是媒体也就这这个间隙，开始把镜头从金融公司移向了监管机构，可以预见到联储主席Bernanke和财长Paulson未来会遭到更多的质疑，从救两房到救AIG再到宣布通过商业银行为货币市场基金提供2300亿美元的流动性——他们有太多理由犯错。上次我说不如让美国把大银行都国有化了，再整合整合跟世界上盈利能力最强的银行——中国工商银行竞争竞争。今天WSJ就撰文深入讨论了这种可能性—— 当然不是跟CIBC竞争的可能性。文章说上个世纪80年代瑞典也经历了同样的房产和金融危机，于是瑞典政府对其整个银行体系提供担保，并将各家银行的坏账 拉出来组建专门的资产管理公司，这些管理公司由国家运行，而剥离了坏账的银行继续由私人经营。其实我觉得WSJ的编辑写这篇报道的时候脑子里肯定想到了中 国，我们也是国有化，也是剥离不良资产，只不过提中国显然不如提瑞典来的政治正确，可是这掩盖不了最重要的事实——美国你可是自由资本主义世界的一面旗帜 啊，你去搞银行国有化了自由市场就死了啊。而且不光自由，还有民主呢。国会已经不停有人抱怨Bernanke Paulson & Co.的权利太大，这周的金融动荡让大部分政客没时间反应，可是可以预见接下来他们肯定闲不了，难保不会代表Taxpayer们消灭Bernanke & Paulson。

P.S.

最后插播一首歌曲，叫Bye, Bye, Lehman Brothers and I，博君一笑——如果是LEH的前员工，请不要抽我，我没恶意的：

In memoriam: The ballad of the Lehman Bros. banker, sung to the tune of Don McLean’s American Pie:

Click here for accompanying music.

A long, long time ago,
I can still remember,
How much wealth there was in the Square Mile,
And I knew that if I had my chance,
I could make it in finance,
And maybe I’d have money for a while.

But subprime assets made me shiver,
With every product I’d deliver,
Bad news in the press(es),
Just look at those CDSs.

I can’t remember if I cried,
When my salary was pushed aside,
But something resounded worldwide,
The week the IB died.

So bye, bye, Lehman Brothers and I,
Needed credit to get better but the credit was dry,
Hank Paulson’s Fed had carved up the pie,
Saying, AIG’s too big to die,
AIG is too big to die.

Why’d Fuld wait, put all at stake,
Did he think he’d make more at a later date?
Greedy finance tycoons,
Now Barclay’s buying, let’s be frank,
A pretty cheap investment bank,
Can you hire me, real soon?

Well, I know that it’s a lot to ask,
When Einhorn’s taken us to task,
Using our balance sheet to guise,
Our level 3 assets’ demise.

Now Morgan Stanley’s feeling short,
And BofA’s Merrill’s last resort,
The banking system’s pretty morte,
The week the IB died.

I was saying,
Bye, bye, Lehman Brothers and I,
Needed credit to get better but the credit was dry,
Hank Paulson’s Fed had carved up the pie,
Saying, AIG’s too big to die,
AIG is too big to die.

Now for four years we’d been on the phone,
Selling mezzanine CDOs,
But that’s not how it used to be,
When Dick came in, we just did bonds,
Good thing he helped us right that wrong,
By buying Aurora Loan LLC,

Oh, and while the Fed was looking ‘round,
They thought they’d try and shoot us down,
The market was all broken,
Bank lending was a croakin’,
And while we unwind our trading book,
The head hunters all have a look,
The hedge funds are put on the hook,
The week the IB died,

I was saying 523 ,
Bye, bye, Lehman Brothers and I,
Needed credit to get better but the credit was dry,
Hank Paulson’s Fed had carved up the pie,
Saying, AIG’s too big to die,
AIG is too big to die…